According to the current data by media, the outcome looks promising to Mr. Joe Biden. However, President Trump is not convinced that the countings in several states were legit. Legal cases are very likely to follow. So I don’t think there will be a result within at least one month. As a sales rep in an exporting company which exports to the US regularly, I cannot help wondering, what would happen if Mr. Joe Biden did get elected?

For starters, US dollar is devaluating against RMB lately, which coincides with the news that Mr. Biden’s votes keep rising. This will diminish the advantages of goods made in China. As the cost rises, buyers in the US would pay more attentions to options from other countries, such as Indonesia and Vietnam. Bad news to us.

Second, many people believe that Mr. Biden would change the course that President Trump set for US-China trade disputes. To be more specific, he might lift the tariff currently imposed to shipments from China. No one knows when it will happen, if it does at all, but if it actually happened, it would be very good news to us. I personally lost half of my US customers since 2018, very painful memories for me. Of course regaining more customers will not happen overnight, but it is a start. Recovering process is always a lot slower than the rhythm of declining. I can live with that.

The third, the intense relationship between the US and China will continue. Probably not as dramatic as before, such as closing embassies, calling covid-19 as China virus, deporting students from China and other things, but the tendency might be hard to reverse. We all need hope but being naive won’t help anyone. In the next four years or even longer, we might have to keep a cautious distance with each other, just like two hedgehogs, close enough to keep each other warm, and far enough to avoid hurting each other too much.

Barry

Foshan LZ Building Materials LTD.