Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the house of the US, the 3rd highest politician, visited Taiwan on 2nd of August, 2022

Government officials from Beijing have been fiercely condemning her visit and carried out military drill for days. The possibility of war between Beijing and Taipei has never been higher.

I pray that this war will not happen, not now, now ever.

If it happened, it would be a lose-lose-lose situation. 

First of all, Taiwan would be in hell. Comparing to mainland China, Taiwan is small and they can only take so many bombs. Tens of thousands of people will die and economy will be crushed. Worst scenario, they could lose the right to keep their way of living, and all the sacrifice would have been for nothing in the end. 

2nd, people in mainland will suffer an awful lot as well. Western countries will be sanctioning China harshly and we might lose the ability to do business with the world. We might be blocked from the SWIFT system and I would be out of job immediately myself. Not mentioning people in China are already suffering a lot due to internal crisis, such as people not able to get their apartments after paying loans for years, people cannot access their savings due to bank corruption, people having serious trouble making a living due to insane Covid-19 control policy. Life is already too hard. 

3rd, the US will be in direct conflict with a big country who has nuclear weapons and there will be a major supply chain disorder all over the world. There is little chance that the US will be defeated by Beijing militarily at American soil but serious wounds here and there will be inevitable. There could be overwhelming loss of their navy. Inflation will go crazy, if it is not already that. God knows how many years are required to heal the relationship between these two super powers. After the war, there might be another super power setting up new rules instead of the US due to its weakening military power.

I think all three parties are well aware of the consequences. If I am right about this, there won’t be a war. Let Taiwan folks be. Don’t we have enough troubles to deal with already?

Barry